This is me right now when it comes to picking NFL games in 2023. Not too good, but not terrible either.


I went 7-7 ATS last week in Week 9, going 8-6 in a row. It seemed like a good week, but I lost a few tough games, like the Titans failing to cover, the Saints missing a late field goal, and the Falcons letting a late lead slip to the Vikings.

Too bad.

Season records are now 65-67-4 ATS and 81-55 straight. Like I said, average.

Can I just ask one thing? Can endgame games play out the way I want them to? This week I think they will.

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)

It’s a dog game for a Thursday night, a game featuring two teams going nowhere. The Bears might have Justin Fields back for this one, which will help them. Bryce Young is really struggling for Carolina. He will continue to do so here as the Bears win it.

Take: Bears 23, Panthers 17 (Result: Bears 16, Panthers 13)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)

The Patriots are reeling and there is talk that Bill Belichick could be in trouble. I don’t believe it, but it’s not a good thing to weigh on this team. The Colts beat the Panthers last week, thanks to their defense with two touchdowns on picks. The offense hasn’t done much, but the Patriots aren’t doing much on offense either. This will be a low scoring game won by the Colts.

Take: Colts 20, Patriots 14

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, I highly suggest checking out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet on.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Ravens are playing as well as anyone, especially on defense, where they are the No. 1 defense. The Browns are third in scoring, but first in yards on defense. So this should be a game won by the team that gets the better quarterback play. I think it’s Lamar Jackson rather than Deshaun Watson. The crows take it.

Take: Ravens 24, Browns 16

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is surprisingly a good game considering how these two play. We expected that from the Bengals, but the Texans are a surprise team. CJ Stroud and Joe Burrow lit it up. But it’s a big challenge for Stroud, who will see a lot of different looks from Lou Anarumo. Burrow will make the most of it.

Take: Bengals 29, Texans 20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

Both teams are coming off a bye, but they are doing it in different ways. The Jaguars have won five straight games while the 49ers have lost three straight. San Francisco will be healthier here than before the bye, but I think the Jaguars will win this game late with a Trevor Lawrence drive leading to a game-winning field goal.

Take: Jaguars 24, 49ers 23

New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Vikings pulled off a shocking victory when Joshua Dobbs came off the bench to beat Atlanta last week after being traded to the team last Tuesday. Now that he’s been here a little longer, he should be more comfortable. The Saints have won their last two games as the offense has come alive. But they will be challenged here by Minnesota’s defense. Look for the Vikings to get another win with Dobbs.

Take: Vikings 25, Saints 20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Packers beat a struggling Rams team last week, while the Steelers beat the Titans. Neither team looked good doing it, but the Steelers have extra rest and they are at home. I think the defensive front will create problems for Jordan Love as Pittsburgh wins again.

Take: Steelers 23, Packers 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Titans are on the road for a second straight week as rookie Will Levis takes over as the full-time starting quarterback. The Bucs have lost four games in a row and their defense has been really bad in recent weeks. It’s good for Lévis. This continues here as the Titans win it.

Take: Titans 23, Bucs 20

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Atlanta’s quarterback change didn’t produce a win last week against the Vikings, but Taylor Heinicke remains the starter. The Cardinals could have Kyler Murray back for this one as he returns after tearing an ACL last year. If he plays, and I think he will, the Cardinals will win it.

Take: Cardinals 21, Falcons 14

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Lions are coming off a bye, while the Chargers are playing a short week after beating the Jets on Monday night. The Chargers offense has struggled as of late, which is concerning. But I think at home they’ll find a way to beat the Lions in this one thanks to Justin Herbert.

Take: Chargers 27, Lions 24

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Giants are a disaster at quarterback after losing Daniel Jones for the season, which means Tommy Devito will start. Not a good way to face a Dallas team coming off a tough loss in Philadelphia. The Cowboys will take on the Giants here with a big performance. Dallas wins by 21.

Take: Cowboys 31, Giants 10

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

The Commanders are playing back-to-back road games after beating the Patriots on Sunday. The Seahawks are coming off a horrible performance against the Ravens on the road. But at home they will play much better. Despite this, I think the commanders will remain present in this one. Seattle will win a close game.

Take: Seahawks 26, Commanders 23

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

The Jets are coming off a terrible offensive performance Monday night against the Chargers, and now must head west to face a Raiders team that took a major hit last week after Josh McDaniels was fired. The Jets are so limited on offense, which happens every week. They won’t be able to block Maxx Crosby, leading to turnovers and short fields. The Raiders win it.

Take: Raiders 21, Jets 10

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)

This is a must-win for the Bills, who need to get their offense going. The Broncos are coming off a bye, but they played well last time beating the Chiefs. However, it is a difficult challenge to face on the road against an injured team. I’ll take the Bills here to bounce back with a solid offensive performance. Josh Allen will play faster and looser, which is what they need.

Take: Bills 34, Broncos 17

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *